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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJim Grant: There's as much a chance of a rate hike as there is of two rate cutsSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley chief economist, and Jim Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer founder and editor, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, what to expect from the Fed's policy meeting, interest rate outlook, and more.
Persons: Jim Grant, There's, Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Jim Grant and Morgan Stanley's Seth CarpenterSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley chief economist, and Jim Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer founder and editor, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, what to expect from the Fed's policy meeting, interest rate outlook, and more.
Persons: Jim Grant, Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter: The economy is slowing, but not crashingSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his Fed and inflation outlook and expectations.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter, Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe next Fed cut will likely be in June, says Morgan Stanley's Seth CarpenterSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss his market and economic expectations and how he anticipates the Fed will react.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe current US labor market is 'very different' from past cycles: Morgan StanleySeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's global chief economist discusses the implications of the Fed's attempts to reduce balance sheet on the markets. He says current US labor market conditions will prevent the economy from 'falling off a cliff'.
Persons: Morgan Stanley Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's
Experts say many of those workers will need to be retrained for new jobs to avoid being left behind. The US economy has struggled in recent decades to help workers adjust to job disruptions. Emerging generative AI technologies like ChatGPT could eliminate or change the nature of millions of jobs over the next decade. AdvertisementWhen Donald Trump promised to bring back manufacturing jobs before the 2016 election, he was speaking to the Americans who had been left in the lurch. But many overseas jobs aren't likely to return anytime soon, among the reasons job retraining was — and remains — necessary for impacted workers.
Persons: , Richard Baldwin, Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley, hasn't, Donald Trump, Michael Chui, Chui, Ethan Mollick Organizations: Service, Global, Economic, Institute, McKinsey Global Institute, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, PricewaterhouseCoopers, IBM, Schools Locations: United States, Mexico
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe fully think things will slow down in the 4th quarter, say Morgan Stanley's Seth CarpenterSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, latest market trends, the Fed's rate hike campaign, impact of high Treasury yields, and more.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Locations: U.S
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis CPI print keeps the Fed on track to end rate hikes, says Morgan Stanley's Seth CarpenterBarbara Doran, BD8 Capital Partners CIO and Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Global Chief Economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk Arm's upcoming IPO, today's CPI report, the state of the consumer and more.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter Barbara Doran, Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Organizations: BD8 Capital, Morgan Stanley Global, CPI
The US looks likely to tip into a recession in about six months, according to David Rosenberg. The top economist warned that the deterioration of credit quality is reminiscent of 2008's mortgage crisis. "I think that if we escape this little recession, it'll be a miracle," he told Blockworks' Forward Guidance. "Every penny of the stimulus checks got spent." "We just replaced credit cards with what happened with subprime mortgages 15 years ago," Rosenberg said.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Blockworks, We've, I'm, impact's, there's, Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, we'll, Banks, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Associates, Federal, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon
However, some investors believe a bearish China story is shifting the spotlight onto investment opportunities in other Asian markets. Morgan Stanley downgraded the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) to equal weight from overweight in early August, citing lower earnings growth expectations and structural challenges. Opportunity in Japan Japan currently stands out as a "particularly attractive" investment play, according to Horizon Investments chief investment officer Scott Ladner. Investors can get access to the Japanese market through the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) , which has an expense ratio of 0.5% and more than $13 billion in assets. Ways to play the space include the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) , the Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF (FLKR) and the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) .
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Wells, Jay Bryson, Scott Ladner, Ladner, Seth Carpenter, it's, Carlos Asilis, China —, Asilis, Franklin Templeton's FLKR, we've Organizations: Horizon Investments, Bank of Japan, Glovista Investments, Korea ETF, Franklin FTSE, Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF, U.S Locations: China, Wells Fargo, Japan Japan, Japan, Asia, Pacific, South Korea, Taiwan, Korea, Franklin FTSE South, Australia, India, Vietnam, Indonesia
The US is nearing a dream no-recession scenario, according to Morgan Stanley's top economist. Falling inflation and steady growth show the Federal Reserve is closing in on a soft landing, Seth Carpenter said. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. "I wouldn't say that we've discarded it wholesale – there's always a risk," Carpenter, who is the bank's global chief economist, told Bloomberg TV, referring to the risk of a recession. Meanwhile, growth has remained resilient – with the economy expanding 2.1% between April and June, according to a government estimate Wednesday.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Seth Carpenter, , , Carpenter, Morgan Stanley, who's, Mike Wilson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Service, Federal, Fed, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter says Powell will need to stay hawkish at Jackson HoleSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss what to expect from the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter, Powell, hawkish, Jackson, Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter: Labor market will keep us from tipping over into recessionSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what he sees ahead for the economy, his conviction toward inflation, and more.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter, Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Labor
[1/2] US President Joe Biden addresses the nation on averting default and the Bipartisan Budget Agreement, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, June 2, 2023. JIM WATSON/Pool via REUTERS/File PhotoWASHINGTON, July 20 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden asked a group of aides to explore "all legal and policy options" to prevent another debt limit standoff, the White House said on Thursday. The group includes Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Attorney General Merrick Garland, White House budget director Shalanda Young and Council of Economic Advisers chair Jared Bernstein. This year's bipartisan debt ceiling deal keeps fiscal 2024 spending flat at this year's levels, allowing a 1% increase for fiscal 2025. The deal was approved by 149 House Republicans - a strong party majority - along with 165 Democrats.
Persons: Joe Biden, JIM WATSON, Kevin McCarthy, Stuart Delery, Lael Brainard, Biden, Janet Yellen, General Merrick Garland, Shalanda Young, Jared Bernstein, Laurence Tribe, Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, Trevor Hunnicutt, Leslie Adler, Stephen Coates Organizations: White, WASHINGTON, Democratic, Republican, National Economic, U.S . Constitution, Economic, Harvard Law School, Republicans, Thomson Locations: Washington , DC, United States, U.S .
Diane Jaffee — lead portfolio manager at TCW, which manages $205 billion in assets — sits solidly in this latter camp. "Historically, mid-caps and small-caps outperform large caps over time, but you have to go back to a 20 year time horizon before that's true," Jaffee explained. 8 mid-cap stocks set to outperformWithin her mid-cap fund, some of Jaffee's financials holdings include insurance broker Arch Capital Group (ACGL) and private equity firm Apollo Global Management (APO). "It has a great management team that comes from JPMorgan, and they're an economic focus for Puerto Rico," Jaffee explained. Within consumer discretionary stocks, Jaffee also noted homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) as another top holding.
Persons: Diane Jaffee, Jaffee, Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, Carpenter, that's, We've, They've, homebuilder, she's, LEN Organizations: Wall, Federal Reserve, , Arch Capital, Apollo Global Management, Banco Popular, JPMorgan, Puerto, Darden, Medicaid outlays Locations: TCW, financials, Puerto Rican, Puerto Rico, Olive
Fed’s rate hike habit will be hard to kick: podcast
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
WASHINGTON, June 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The US central bank is mulling a pause after raising interest rates at its last 10 meetings. In this Exchange podcast, Morgan Stanley chief economist Seth Carpenter lays out the calculus behind the Federal Reserve’s next move, and why it’s so hard for policymakers to pivot. Listen to the podcastFollow @BenWinck on TwitterSubscribe to Breakingviews’ podcasts, Viewsroom and The Exchange. The opinions expressed are his own)Editing by Aimee Donnellan and Katrina HamlinOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, Aimee Donnellan, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, Federal, Twitter, Thomson
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley: Expect the global economy to slow to 2.9% this yearSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to explain why he expects the global economy to slow later this year and more.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, Squawk
Watch CNBC's full interview with Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Morgan Stanley's Seth CarpenterSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to explain why he expects the global economy to slow later this year and more.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley, Squawk
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Citi's Scott Chronert and Morgan Stanley's Seth CarpenterScott Chronert, Citi U.S. equity strategist, and Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Fed rate hikes likelihood after the bank fallout and more.
What to expect from the Fed's meeting next week
  + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhat to expect from the Fed's meeting next weekScott Chronert, Citi U.S. equity strategist, and Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Fed rate hikes likelihood after the bank fallout and more.
The action comes after a selloff spurred by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments indicating interest rates may need to go higher for longer. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked higher by 2 points, or 0.01%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped by 0.04% and 0.05%, respectively. The shakeup in markets came after Fed Chair Powell spoke before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. January's job openings and labor turnover data is due, as is the ADP jobs report for February.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter says there's still a path to a soft landingSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the Fed and economy.
In her more than eight years as a Federal Reserve official, Lael Brainard was an influential voice, particularly for the side that favored keeping monetary policy loose and interest rates low. "Brainard's departure from the Fed leaves a dove-sized hole in its monetary policy," Beacon Policy Advisors wrote in its daily newsletter Wednesday. Indeed, Brainard's influence only accelerated the longer she served as a Fed governor. Her subsequent appointment in 2022 as vice chair solidified her influence, installing her as part of the "troika" of policy-directing power that includes current Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Some candidates outside the Fed ranks, according to Guha, include Karen Dynan, Jason Furman, Janice Eberly and Christina Romer, all of whom served under former President Barack Obama (and his vice president, Biden).
Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 1.2%, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) rallied 1.5% and Dow Jones (.DJI) was up 1.1%. Treasuries rallied a little, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bonds easing 2 basis points to 3.6940%. The two-year bond yields also eased from their three-month highs to hover at 4.5090%, compared with the previous close of 4.5340%. It weakened 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 132.13 yen, after gaining 0.8% the previous day. On Tuesday, the Japanese government is expected to name academic Kazuo Ueda as its pick to become next central bank governor.
Factbox: Some potential successors to Brainard at the Fed
  + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Meanwhile, analysts and Fed observers are already swapping notes on potential replacements for Brainard at the Fed from a bench of economists aligned with Biden's Democrats, who control the U.S. Senate. MARY DALYDaly is president of the San Francisco Fed, ascending to that position in 2018 after 22 years at the regional Fed bank, including a stint as its director of research. Furman has been a prominent, Twitter-savvy commentator on macroeconomic and Fed policy. He has a PhD from the University of Virginia and served as a Fed economist for a little over a year in the mid-1990s. With a PhD from Stanford University, he's held staff positions at the Fed board and the San Francisco Fed, where he also served as president before moving to the New York Fed role in 2018.
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